Stable TapeSignals
Not every move is a Signal.
A Signal is an evidence-backed observation that meets a stated rule. It connects what changed to the record, the comparison and the methodology behind the claim. Most of what moves on any given day does not qualify.
Signals are earned by the record. They are not scheduled content.
Where this stands today
- Published every canonical day
- The Daily Assessment, selected by rules v5 and phrased by fixed templates.
- Published
- Next-generation Signal methodology
- Scarce and evidence-gated. Drafted and under review.
- In development
- Signals issued under it
- No evaluator runs and no ledger is written. Nothing is published or delivered under it.
- Not enabled
Status checked 9 September 2026 against the published Methodology.
See how a Signal qualifiesRead the principles
One evaluation, four outcomes
01 · The shape of the answer
Every complete record is evaluated across four kinds of object. Each evaluation reaches one of four determinations, and only one of them is a Signal.
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Market
No new Signal
The aggregate could be evaluated. It moved, and the movement was ordinary for this record set.
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Stablecoin Larkspur Dollar
New Signal
A qualifying condition that was not present at the previous comparison, with every required piece of evidence attached.
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Chain Calder
Continuing state
Something already identified is still under way. Real, still true, and not a reason to report it again.
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Issuer Thale Reserve
Unavailable
The current level is known. The prior comparison is not admissible, so no honest statement about change can be made.
Not enough evidence is not the same as nothing happened.
Open up a Signal
02 · How one qualifies
A published Signal is one short sentence. Underneath it sits a much larger record: what was observed, what it could honestly be compared with, which rule applied, how it relates to anything already reported, and what may be said in public. Open each stage.
Illustrative example. Not an issued Signal.
Larkspur Dollar supply rose by $96M against the previous record, its largest single-record expansion in this archive.
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01What was observedMeasurement
The dated record the claim is bound to, and the exact scope it is allowed to describe. A Signal may only describe the part of the record that was admissible and comparable. Where only part of an object can be measured, the claim is limited to that part or it is not made at all.
- Record
- Illustrative
- Measurement basis
- Illustrative
- Permitted scope
- The admitted and comparable universe only
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02What can be comparedEligibility
A change is a statement about two observations, so the second one has to be real and it has to be comparable. A missing prior reading is never treated as zero, a gap is never filled in, and a renamed or reclassified entity does not silently inherit the history of the thing it replaced. If the comparison cannot be made, the outcome is unavailable rather than a number.
Comparability is judged for the specific claim being made. A missing input for one kind of object does not block an evaluation that never needed it.
- Comparison record
- Illustrative
- Identity continuity
- Required, and proved rather than assumed
- Missing prior reading
- Fails closed. Never zero
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03Which rule appliesEligibility
Each kind of object has a small set of named families, and each family states in advance what evidence it needs and what it takes to pass. Every route carries its own required conditions, so a single striking number cannot qualify on its own.
The rule is fixed before the day it judges.
- Family
- Illustrative
- Methodology version
- In development. Not effective
- Thresholds
- Not yet calibrated or approved
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04How overlapping candidates are handledEvent resolution
One underlying occurrence can pass several rules at once. A large move in a single stablecoin can also register as a move in its issuer, its chain and the aggregate. Publishing all four would be four reports about one thing.
Candidates connected by a stated mechanical relation are grouped, and one is selected to represent the group in public. Happening on the same day is not a relation. Grouping never changes whether a candidate qualified: the others remain in the record as supporting members and stay inspectable.
- Grouping basis
- A stated evidence relation. Never coincidence
- Effect on qualification
- None. Resolution cannot unqualify a candidate
- Supporting members
- Retained and auditable
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05What may be publishedDistribution
Wording is assembled from facts the evidence already carries. Copy may not add a cause, a motive or a consequence that the record does not support, so a Signal describes what changed rather than why someone did it. Distribution decides how a finished Signal is carried. It cannot create one, suppress one, or make one sound larger.
Under the methodology in development, no Signal is published. Every artifact it could produce is locked as non-publishing.
- Copy authority
- Recorded facts only
- Effect on eligibility
- None
- Current publication state
- Not enabled
The order is fixedMeasurement, then eligibility, then event resolution, then distribution. No later stage may change an earlier result.
The four determinations
04 · What an evaluation can conclude
These four are the whole public vocabulary for the outcome of an evaluation. They describe one thing only: what the evidence supported for that object on that record.
New Signal
NEW_SIGNAL
A new qualifying condition, or a stated escalation of one already reported, under the rules in force for that record.
Continuing state
CONTINUING_STATE
A condition already identified is still running, without the new information that would warrant reporting it again. The condition remains visible on the record it belongs to.
No new Signal
NO_NEW_SIGNAL
The evaluation was possible and it was carried out. Nothing met the rule. This is the ordinary result on an ordinary day.
Unavailable
UNAVAILABLE
The evidence or the comparison was not sufficient to reach a determination at all. The reason is recorded.
Three separate questions, often confused
A determination is not a status, and neither is a delivery.
What the evidence supported
New Signal, continuing state, no new Signal, unavailable. A property of one evaluation.
What the methodology is
Draft, shadow, live, retired. A property of the rules, not of any single day. A methodology in shadow publishes nothing.
What happened afterwards
Reviewed, published, delivered, corrected, withdrawn. A property of the artifact, decided after the determination is final.
A Signal can be determined and never published. A methodology can be live while one of its families is not. These are not one traffic light.
Small does not mean insignificant.
05 · Entity fairness
Two ways of ranking a move give opposite answers. A methodology that picks either one on its own will be wrong in a predictable direction, and the same names will win every time.
A large stablecoin
- Level
- $148,000M
- Change
- +$1,180M
- Relative
- +0.80%
Large in dollars. Unremarkable for something this size.
A small stablecoin
- Level
- $610M
- Change
- +$96M
- Relative
- +15.74%
Small in dollars. Extraordinary against its own history.
By absolute size the first move is more than twelve times the second. By percentage the second is close to twenty times the first. Neither comparison settles whether either is worth reporting.
So neither test is used alone. A move has to clear a floor that makes it economically non-trivial, and it has to be exceptional against a record of that entity's own behaviour. A large entity does not qualify for routine behaviour because the dollar figure is big, and a tiny entity does not qualify because a small base produced a large percentage.
Nothing about an entity's size, popularity or commercial relationship with Stable Tape enters that test.
What is settled here, and what is not
Settled in principle. Raw size is not a blanket gate on eligibility. Percentage movement alone is never sufficient. Every route by which a smaller entity can qualify must also carry an economic floor. Sponsorship, popularity and expected engagement are excluded from eligibility entirely.
Not settled. Every number that would make those principles operable. The floors, the percentile cutoffs, the variability measures and the minimum history each family needs are open calibration questions. None has been approved, and none is stated on this page.
Not claimed. That entities of different sizes will produce Signals at similar rates, or that this design has been shown to be unbiased in practice. Fairness has to be measured across size bands once there is a record to measure, and a bias found that way is fixed by changing the rules going forward, not by editing past outcomes.
Every Signal starts with enough evidence.
06 · What exists today
Readiness is not one badge. An object class can have a sound current reading and still have no comparison, no approved rule and no route to publication. Each of those is tracked separately.
| Object class | Observations | Comparison | Rule evaluable | Methodology | Publication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market | Available | Available | Not yet established | In development | Not enabled |
| Stablecoins | Available | Not yet established | Not yet established | In development | Not enabled |
| Chains | Partial | Not yet established | Not yet established | In development | Not enabled |
| Issuers | Partial | Not yet established | Not yet established | In development | Not enabled |
How to read that table
Market. There is a usable current level and a usable prior-record comparison. That is the input a Signal would need. It is not evidence that a rule exists to judge it, that an evaluator runs, or that anything is authorised for publication.
Stablecoins, chains and issuers. Prospective directional history for individual constituents had not yet begun accumulating at the date checked. A first level is not a movement, and history reconstructed after the fact cannot stand in for it. Comparison also depends on stable identity and a consistent measurement basis, which are tracked separately from the numbers themselves.
Partial. Chain and issuer figures exist, but accounting them by source key is not the same as a settled canonical universe for those objects. The gap is recorded rather than rounded up.
Not yet established means the input has not been proved sufficient. It is not zero.
What has to happen first
- 01A first admissible observation for the object.
- 02A first pair of observations that can honestly be compared.
- 03Enough history for the particular rule being applied.
- 04Independent review, then calibration of every threshold.
- 05A shadow period that evaluates and publishes nothing.
- 06An explicit decision to authorise publication.
These are conditions, not dates. Stable Tape is not running a countdown, and no amount of elapsed time moves any of them on its own.
The principles behind every Signal
07 · The Signal Constitution
A methodology states thresholds. Above it sits a shorter document that states what any Stable Tape Signal methodology is allowed to do. A methodology may be stricter than these principles. It may not be looser.
Constitution
The principles
What any Signal methodology is allowed to do. Changed rarely, and never to reach a particular outcome.
governs
Methodology version
The rules in force
The families, the evidence each one needs and the thresholds. Versioned, and fixed before the records it judges.
evaluates
Determination
The outcome for one object
One of the four states, bound to the exact record and the exact rule version that produced it.
The three layers are versioned separately. A change to one is not a change to another.
DraftThe Signal Constitution is drafted and under review. It is not in force, and it carries no effective date.
Evidence before interpretation
A Signal may only arise from observations the record actually supports. No carried-forward value, no gap filled with a zero, no reconstruction presented as something measured at the time, and no economic story attached to a number that does not prove it.
Rules fixed before the outcome
Rules are published and versioned before the records they judge. A change applies to later records only. An effective version is never edited in place to alter a determination already made under it.
Independent eligibility
Popularity, follower counts, expected engagement, commercial relationships and editorial preference are excluded inputs. Two entities with identical evidence get the identical outcome.
Consistent event resolution
Related candidates are grouped by stated rules, not by a daily quota or an editor's sense of how much is too much. Scarcity has to come from the evidence, not from a cap on the output.
Explanation attached
Every Signal must be reproducible from its own evidence. A reader should be able to see which record, which comparison and which rule produced it, and a reader who disagrees should be able to say precisely where.
Accountability when things change
Corrections and withdrawals are recorded as additions to the record. Nothing is deleted, and criticism of the method gets a reasoned answer or is logged as an open question.
What versioning actually commits Stable Tape to
Rules can change, and they will. Each change is dated and applies going forward, and the rules that produced a past determination stay attached to it.
Each layer is versioned on its own: the principles, the methodology, the way things are measured, the register of entity identities, and the templates that turn a result into a sentence. Every determination names the exact versions it used. A change to one is not a change to the rest, and a wording change cannot carry a rule change.
Two version lines are separate and should not be run together. The principles document is at version 1. The methodology being drafted against it is the seventh in its own line, most of which were never public and several of which never left draft.
A hash proves that a rule set has not changed since it was published. It proves nothing about whether the rule was a good one or whether the source data was right. Both remain open to challenge.
How the rules change
08 · Version history
Rules will change. Every change is dated, applies prospectively, and leaves earlier readings untouched.
| Layer and version | Status | Effective | Rule hash | What it did |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution Signal Constitution v1 | Draft | Not assigned | Not assigned | Defines the principles every Signal methodology must follow. Still under review. |
| Selection rules Daily Assessment v4 | Superseded | Not published | Not published | Introduced one shared selection process and one public reading per record. Superseded by v5. |
| Selection rules Daily Assessment v5 | In force | Not published | Not published | Added repetition, reversal, dominance and cooldown rules, and separated selection rules from wording. This is the version used today. |
| Wording Presentation template v5-t6 | In force | Not published | Not published | Controls how the selected fact is written. It cannot change which fact was selected. |
| Candidate Signal v6 | Research, never public | None | None | Re-read frozen records to test whether a day was genuinely new. It never affected anything published. The published note on it. |
| Next Signal methodology | In development | Not assigned | Not assigned | The next Signal methodology: scarce, evidence-gated, and designed for Market, Token, Chain and Issuer observations. Still in development. |
Why there are gaps
The two absences differ. "Not published" means the version operated, but Stable Tape never issued an effective instant or a rule hash for it. "Not assigned" means the version has not reached a state where either exists.
Neither cell is filled with an estimate.
The layers are versioned separately. Moving from template v5-t4 to v5-t6 changed the wording and not the selection, so it is not a selection-rule version.
Signal history begins with the first issued Signal.
09 · The archive
Every issued Signal will have a permanent page tied to the record and methodology version that produced it. None has been issued yet.
No Signals yet.
The archive begins with the first issued Signal. Examples and test candidates never appear here.
Only issued Signals appear in the archive.
What each entry will carry
None of this exists yet.
- Identifier
- A stable Signal ID and one permanent address that keeps working
- Issued
- The date and time it was issued
- Subject
- The kind of object, the entity, and the family under which it qualified
- Determination
- The outcome, and the methodology version that reached it
- Evidence
- The record it was bound to, and the comparison it was measured against
- Reasoning
- Why it qualified
- Current validity
- Whether it still stands, and what changed if it does not
Kept together, these let a reader return years later and recover the rules that applied, the record behind them, why the Signal qualified, what was published, and what changed afterwards.
The record stays. Its status can change.
10 · Corrections
Data can change after publication. When it does, we preserve the original statement, record the new evidence, and show what changed.
We keep three things separate: what was published, what changed later, and whether the original Signal still stands. If a Signal is withdrawn, the original remains visible with the reason and date of the change.
Original statement
Published from the evidence available at the time. The original remains permanently accessible.
New evidence
A provider restates a figure, or Stable Tape discovers an error in identity, measurement or wording.
Review
The Signal is re-tested under the methodology version that originally produced it.
Retained or updated
The Signal either keeps its status or receives a new one. The reason is added to its revision history.
A provider restatement does not automatically make the original fixing wrong. If Stable Tape captured the source faithfully, the original remains the record of what the source reported at the time. The revised evidence is recorded and evaluated separately.
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The Signal
Larkspur Dollar supply rose by $96M against the previous record, its largest single-record expansion in this archive.
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Original determination
New Signal under the methodology in force when it was issued.
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Current status
Withdrawn
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Revision history
One entry: what changed, why it changed, and when the status changed.
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The revision event
Records the underlying change and links every affected record or Signal.
The rule is simple: keep the original statement, keep the methodology that produced it, and record any later status change separately.
Not defined hereStatus labels are provisional. The revision system will define the final vocabulary for Signals and other revised records.
A withdrawn Signal should still show what it said, when it was issued, which methodology produced it, the record and comparison behind it, why its status changed, and when.
In developmentThis policy is still in development. Automated source-revision monitoring is not live yet. When the revision register launches, Signal status changes will link to the underlying revision event.
Where a Signal would lead
11 · Distribution
A Signal should lead back to the record it came from, and to the reasoning that produced it.
Daily Tape
Published
The dated records themselves. This is where any Signal would point. Read the latest Daily Tape.
Stable Briefing
Published
The daily edition, published today under the current methodology. Read the Stable Briefing.
Methodology
Published
The rules that select and phrase what is published today, including the thresholds behind them. Read the Methodology.
A page for each Signal
Not enabled
The intended destination: the claim, its evidence, its comparison, its limitations and its version bindings on one page. It does not exist yet, because there is nothing to put on it.
Signal alerts and feeds
Not enabled
No Signal notification, feed or interface is offered. There is nothing to subscribe to.
Commercial support does not determine Signal eligibility.
How today's Daily Assessment is selectedThe candidate research that preceded thisThe Daily Tape